Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

3017

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

December 11 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 38 29 55 51
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 76 57 83 113
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 4 2 8 12
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 194 101 128 137
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 37 28 64 63
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 8 5 9 8
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 3 3 2 5
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 36 34 38 83
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 31 81 98 90
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 13 22 12 8
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 36 19 25 51
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 63 163 124 96
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 46 58 67 48
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 44 42 53 37
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 21 20 72 50

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 5 3 5 8
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 1 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 1 1 2 6
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 3 9 13 11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 2 4 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 1 1 4
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 7 5 3
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 6 5 4 3
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 3 2 1 2
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 10 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.04
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.08
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.12 0.00 0.11 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.15 0.18 0.08 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.13 0.09 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.05
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.06

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.10 0.05 0.06 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.05
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.10
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.05
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.11 0.07 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.47 0.16 0.12 0.25
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.33 0.13 0.22 0.32
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.46 0.09 0.15 0.30
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.25 0.14 0.35 0.26
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.43 0.43 0.09 0.04
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.30 0.36 0.23 0.11
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.43 0.12 0.32 0.13
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.33 0.19 0.28 0.20
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.17 0.13 0.26 0.43
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.17 0.09 0.44 0.30
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.46 0.28 0.18 0.08
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.43 0.13 0.15 0.29
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.15 0.34 0.31 0.20
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.69 0.12 0.09 0.10
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.48 0.19 0.08 0.26
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.03 0.83 0.09

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.43 0.18 0.15 0.25
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.31 0.15 0.23 0.30
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.42 0.12 0.17 0.29
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.25 0.16 0.33 0.26
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.39 0.39 0.13 0.09
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.29 0.33 0.24 0.14
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.40 0.15 0.31 0.15
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.31 0.20 0.27 0.21
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.19 0.16 0.26 0.40
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.18 0.12 0.40 0.29
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.42 0.27 0.20 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.39 0.15 0.17 0.29
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.17 0.32 0.30 0.21
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.60 0.15 0.12 0.13
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.43 0.20 0.11 0.26
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.09 0.07 0.71 0.12

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.11) (0.01, 0.08) (0.01, 0.07) (0.02, 0.09)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.11) (0.03, 0.09) (0.03, 0.10) (0.04, 0.10)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.21) (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.13) (0.02, 0.18)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.15) (0.02, 0.10) (0.02, 0.16) (0.02, 0.14)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.06) (0.02, 0.06) (0.01, 0.05) (0.00, 0.04)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.02, 0.09) (0.02, 0.08) (0.01, 0.07)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.18) (0.02, 0.10) (0.02, 0.15) (0.01, 0.11)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.15) (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.14) (0.01, 0.12)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.02, 0.08) (0.02, 0.11) (0.03, 0.11)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.15) (0.05, 0.12) (0.07, 0.16) (0.06, 0.15)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.19) (0.04, 0.14) (0.02, 0.14) (0.01, 0.11)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.14) (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.11) (0.03, 0.12)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.07) (0.03, 0.07) (0.02, 0.08) (0.02, 0.07)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.05, 0.17) (0.04, 0.11) (0.03, 0.10) (0.03, 0.11)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.11)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.01, 0.08) (0.06, 0.17) (0.02, 0.11)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.017, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.007. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.04)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date